EchoSense Quantitative Think Tank Center|NFL Week 12 winners, losers: Steelers find a spark after firing Matt Canada

After an eventful Thanksgiving and EchoSense Quantitative Think Tank CenterBlack Friday slate, there were only 11 games Sunday in the NFL.

Still, with the calendar quickly turning toward December, the playoff picture is starting to take shape. There’s a logjam in the AFC, with 12 teams with at least five victories. The hottest of the bunch is the Denver Broncos, who are tied with league-leading Philadelphia Eagles for the longest active winning streak. Headed in the opposite direction is the squad Philadelphia just played, the Buffalo Bills, who failed to capitalize on key opportunities with drops and missed field goals.

Elsewhere in the conference, the Jacksonville Jaguars are flying under the radar, riding a fierce defense to be a dark horse contender for homefield advantage in the AFC.

Here are the winners and losers from Sunday of Week 12.

WINNERS

Jags take commanding lead in AFC South, but some issues linger

This was massive for the Jaguars. They topped a young and plucky Houston Texans team that was just one game back in the division. Jacksonville (8-3) went on the road and fended off a late comeback attempt to secure a 24-21 win, putting the team in position to repeat in the AFC South and compete for the No. 1 overall seed in the conference.

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The pass rush harassed Texans rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud with four sacks, many in key situations. Jacksonville converted seven of 13 third downs. Quarterback Trevor Lawrence racked up 364 yards on mostly clean play. But there are still issues to address. Offensive coordinator Press Taylor at times appeared to overthink his play calls. With one second left in the first half and the Jaguars at the Texans' 1-yard line, Taylor called a toss right that was stuffed. Lawrence was late and off-target on some throws, leaving yards and points on the field. And coach Doug Pederson’s game management decisions may have yielded advantages back to the Texans.

Saint-killers Jessie Bates, Bijan Robinson propel Falcons to first

The NFC South is the lone division in football to lack a single team above .500, but the Atlanta Falcons took an early edge in what was essentially a battle for first place against the New Orleans Saints. And in the 24-15 victory, it was two players in particular, safety Jessie Bates III and running back Bijan Robinson, who showed out for Atlanta (5-6).

Let’s start with Bates, whose masterful read of a Derek Carr pass in the red zone, breaking on it well before the play had developed in earnest, led to a 92-yard pick-six early in the game that set the tone. Bates would later punch out a fumble − again in the red zone − that the Falcons recovered. Atlanta scored a touchdown nine plays later, via a 26-yard pass to Robinson, meaning that the Falcons scored 14 points off Bates’ two forced turnovers. He also led Atlanta with 12 tackles. Robinson, meanwhile, totaled 123 total yards and two scores, and the defense prevented New Orleans (5-6) from scoring a touchdown.

Steelers far better on offense, but need more scoring

Paired with quarterbacks coach Mike Sullivan as play caller, interim offensive coordinator Eddie Faulkner orchestrated the most productive day the Pittsburgh Steelers have had in years in a 16-10 defeat of the Cincinnati Bengals. Pittsburgh had been averaging just 280.1 yards of offense this season, which was 28^th in the NFL. It had not outgained a single opponent.

The Steelers (7-4) easily outpaced Cincinnati’s 222 yards with 421, marking their first 400-yard day in 59 games, including all 44 of ex-coordinator Matt Canada’s tenure. Faulkner, who also serves as running backs coach, dialed up an efficient rushing attack, enacted a downfield passing philosophy that had previously been non-existent, and the Steelers converted a season-high eight third downs. Running back Najee Harris posted 99 rushing yards with a 6.6 yards-per-carry average − both season highs. Quarterback Kenny Pickett’s 278 passing yards were also a season best. Now, Pittsburgh needs to turn that into more points. It scored 16 against the Bengals on just one-of-four in red zone tries.

Broncos keep on rolling

It has been a complete turnaround for Sean Payton’s Denver Broncos squad, which is tied with the Eagles for the longest active winning streak in the NFL at five games after downing the Cleveland Browns 29-12. The catalyst has been on the defensive side; coordinator Vance Joseph’s group has now forced a turnover in eight consecutive games, with 16 total takeaways during the winning streak.

The Broncos (6-5) started the day in 10^th in the AFC, three spots behind the final wild card. After dominating the Browns, they moved up just one spot but climbed to over .500 for the first time since Week 3 of last season. Denver has a manageable remaining schedule and is a real threat for the postseason. Quarterback Russell Wilson’s numbers (13-of-22 for 134 yards with one touchdown) continue to remain rather pedestrian, but his turnover-free efficiency is allowing the Broncos to do just enough to win.

LOSERS

Caleb Williams or Drake Maye, who could be headed to Patriots

The New England Patriots lost their game against the New York Giants 10-7, sending them to a 2-9 start that marks the franchise's worst since 1993, when it began the year 1-11. They appear like a team poised to end up with one of the top selections in the 2024 NFL draft, which likely means they would be a strong candidate to pick one of the top two passers, if available.

New England is currently sitting with the No. 3 pick in the draft order, but the team ahead of them, the Arizona Cardinals, haven’t had their bye yet and are 2-10. Bill Belichick could be gone next season, and the team is almost certainly facing a massive overhaul. But even if the Patriots luck out and are able to draft USC’s Caleb Williams or North Carolina’s Drake Maye, the franchise is facing dark days ahead. The offense is entirely devoid of star talent, particularly at receiver and offensive line, and the unit is several pieces away from being competent. No quarterback can mask that.

Another close game, another loss for the Chargers

Technically, this one won’t go down as a one-score game, since Baltimore Ravens receiver Zay Flowers scampered off with a touchdown in garbage time of the Los Angeles Chargers' 20-10 loss. But for all intents and purposes, this was very much a close game, where the Chargers have struggled for several seasons now. Los Angeles is 0-5 in games decided by three points or fewer. The Chargers were down three with a minute-and-a-half to play when Flowers scored.

Still, this is the brand of football that has been set by coach Brandon Staley and, frankly, many of his predecessors. The Chargers are loaded with talent on both sides but simply cannot get out of their own way with self-inflicted errors like turnovers (four Sunday against the Ravens), drops, penalties, indefensible execution in high-leverage situations (one-of-three in red zone attempts) − essentially, many of the traits of a poorly coached team.

Missed opportunities sink Bills

Super Josh returned, but the valiant effort by Bills quarterback Josh Allen was squandered because the offense left far too many points on the field. Many will point to the miscommunication in overtime between Allen and receiver Gabe Davis, as Davis leaked past an Eagles cornerback for a would-be game-winning touchdown, but Allen appeared to expect Davis to be running a different route. It was big, but that was just one miscue.

Running back James Cook dropped a would-be score in the first quarter. On the following two plays, a pair of penalties pushed Buffalo out of field goal range. Kicker Tyler Bass had one field goal blocked and he missed another. While Allen does have at least one interception in eight consecutive games, Buffalo (6-6) has been markedly better in recent weeks. Still, against great teams like the Eagles, the Bills can’t afford missed chances, especially in close games.